What can we expect from the Autumn Budget?
With Reeve’s final budget of 2025 coming this afternoon, economists have forecast what they believe will be included.
What we know:
Milkshake tax
On Tuesday, Health secretary Wes Streeting announced that he was lowering the threshold of sugar per 100ml for fizzy drinks and extending it to milk-based drinks. These were originally exempt due to their calcium-content. This will hit milkshakes, lattes and high protein milk drinks.
Minimum wage increase
In April, the minimum wage is rising again. The hourly rate for over 21’s will increase by 50p to £12.71, workers aged 18-20 seeing an 85p rise to £10.85, and under-18s and apprentices getting 45p more to £8 an hour.
What’s expected:
Income Tax
Most economists agree that Rachel Reeves will U-turn on her promise not to increase income tax. Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) economist Julian Jessop predicts that there will be a 3p increase on all income tax rates. Other economists propose the income tax will rise by 2p and national insurance will decrease by 2p also. The proposal had been made by the left-leaning think tank the Resolution Foundation; who’s former chief executive is a key advisor to the chancellor. This proposal would mean that there isn’t a change to most workers in England but increase the tax bills of those who don’t pay NI with their income, such as landlords and pensioners.
Wealth Tax
Despite the left and activist group Patriotic Millionaires campaigning for the introduction of wealth tax, it isn’t looking likely that the government are going to introduce it in this budget. A 2% wealth tax on wealth over £10 million would raise nearly £20 billion every year.
Mansion Tax
Properties valued at over £1.5 million and in council tax band F,G and H will have an additional levy added to their council tax bill for the government to raise an estimated £400- £450 million. More than 100,000 of the most valuable properties will be subject to the levy.
Gambling Tax
An increase in the gambling tax, particularly supported by former Labour PM Gordon Brown, could result in enough raised to remove the two-child benefit cap. The gambling industry are currently taxed an extra 21% on online casino stakes and a duty of 20% on slots and gambling machines. The industry claim that a rise in this could lead to hundreds of betting shop closures and the losses of thousands of jobs. However, a committee of MPs have said the government should not “cave” to the industries “scaremongering”.
Alcohol duty
Expected to rise. Alcohol duty is calculated by alcohol type and percentage of pure alcohol. This rise will be paid by the alcohol companies, not distributors or consumers directly.
Tourism tax
Like the one already introduced in Edinburgh, Glasgow, and Aberdeen, taxes will be placed on people offering visitor accommodation per person per night. Currently, Edinburgh and Glasgow are at 5% of the cost of a night’s stay while Aberdeen is at 7%, so similar can be assumed for England.